Hello, I’m Leonel Drukker.

Hello, I’m Leonel Drukker.

PhD Candidate

PhD Candidate
PhD Candidate
UC Berkeley, Haas School of Business in the Real Estate Department

I work on topics relating to residential and commercial real estate, macroeconomics, monetary policy, finance, and consumer finance. My job market paper lies at the intersection of monetary policy and housing markets, focusing on the path to home ownership with three main contributions:

  • I construct a new mortgage rate-specific monetary policy shock, which predicts future mortgage rate changes better than existing monetary policy shocks

  • Provide new empirical evidence of monetary policy transmission through the mortgage channel impacting first-time home buyer and incumbent home buyer purchases

  • Within the context of a calibrated lifecycle model, I find that a transitory negative mortgage rate shock induces welfare losses for potential first-time home buyers and welfare gains for incumbent homeowners

  • Within the context of a calibrated lifecycle model, I find that a transitory negative mortgage rate shock induces welfare losses for potential first-time home buyers and welfare gains for incumbent homeowners


I am on the 2025-2026 academic job market.

I work on topics relating to residential and commercial real estate, macroeconomics, monetary policy, finance, and consumer finance. My job market paper lies at the intersection of monetary policy and housing markets, focusing on the path to home ownership with three main contributions:

  • I construct a new mortgage rate-specific monetary policy shock, which predicts future mortgage rate changes better than existing monetary policy shocks

  • Provide new empirical evidence of monetary policy transmission through the mortgage channel impacting first-time home buyer and incumbent home buyer purchases

  • Within the context of a calibrated lifecycle model, I find that a transitory negative mortgage rate shock induces welfare losses for potential first-time home buyers and welfare gains for incumbent homeowners

  • Within the context of a calibrated lifecycle model, I find that a transitory negative mortgage rate shock induces welfare losses for potential first-time home buyers and welfare gains for incumbent homeowners


I am on the 2025-2026 academic job market.

Job Market Paper

Job Market Paper
Job Market Paper

This paper investigates the mortgage channel of monetary policy transmission to home purchasing behaviors of first-time home buyers and incumbent homeowners. Between 2009 and 2019, the first-time home buyer share of home purchases fell from 35% to 22%, a period in which mortgage rates fell from nearly 7% to 3.5%. First, I construct a new mortgage rate-specific monetary policy shock to use as an IV for mortgage rate changes which predicts future mortgage rates better than existing monetary policy shocks. Next, I find new empirical evidence that a negative 25 basis point mortgage rate shock lowers the first-time buyer share of home purchases by 80 b.p. in the first three months after the shock. These results are more pronounced in CBSAs with higher shares of high LTV constrained borrowers which tend to be areas with more severe housing crises. Finally, I construct a lifecycle model with a housing ladder, heterogeneous agents, and a system of housing-related taxes calibrated to my empirical findings. I find that a one-time unanticipated negative one p.p. transitory shock to mortgage rates causes potential first-time home buyers to face a 0.12% consumption-equivalent welfare losses and purchase their first home 0.1 years later while incumbent home owners receive welfare gains of 0.1%.

This paper investigates the mortgage channel of monetary policy transmission to home purchasing behaviors of first-time home buyers and incumbent homeowners. Between 2009 and 2019, the first-time home buyer share of home purchases fell from 35% to 22%, a period in which mortgage rates fell from nearly 7% to 3.5%. First, I construct a new mortgage rate-specific monetary policy shock to use as an IV for mortgage rate changes which predicts future mortgage rates better than existing monetary policy shocks. Next, I find new empirical evidence that a negative 25 basis point mortgage rate shock lowers the first-time buyer share of home purchases by 80 b.p. in the first three months after the shock. These results are more pronounced in CBSAs with higher shares of high LTV constrained borrowers which tend to be areas with more severe housing crises. Finally, I construct a lifecycle model with a housing ladder, heterogeneous agents, and a system of housing-related taxes calibrated to my empirical findings. I find that a one-time unanticipated negative one p.p. transitory shock to mortgage rates causes potential first-time home buyers to face a 0.12% consumption-equivalent welfare losses and purchase their first home 0.1 years later while incumbent home owners receive welfare gains of 0.1%.

This paper investigates the mortgage channel of monetary policy transmission to home purchasing behaviors of first-time home buyers and incumbent homeowners. Between 2009 and 2019, the first-time home buyer share of home purchases fell from 35% to 22%, a period in which mortgage rates fell from nearly 7% to 3.5%. First, I construct a new mortgage rate-specific monetary policy shock to use as an IV for mortgage rate changes which predicts future mortgage rates better than existing monetary policy shocks. Next, I find new empirical evidence that a negative 25 basis point mortgage rate shock lowers the first-time buyer share of home purchases by 80 b.p. in the first three months after the shock. These results are more pronounced in CBSAs with higher shares of high LTV constrained borrowers which tend to be areas with more severe housing crises. Finally, I construct a lifecycle model with a housing ladder, heterogeneous agents, and a system of housing-related taxes calibrated to my empirical findings. I find that a one-time unanticipated negative one p.p. transitory shock to mortgage rates causes potential first-time home buyers to face a 0.12% consumption-equivalent welfare losses and purchase their first home 0.1 years later while incumbent home owners receive welfare gains of 0.1%.

Working Papers

Working Papers
Working Papers

In this study, we investigate the financial disparities faced by black sellers in the US housing market. Using repeat-sale transactions from 2003 to 2020, we document that black sellers earn, on average, 0.36% lower annualized unlevered returns on their property sales compared to non-black sellers, when selling comparable properties at the same time in the same neighborhood. We find that the racial disparities in housing returns are not explained by seller characteristics, property renovations, the race of the buyer, seller agent fixed effects, and appraisal measures. However, controlling for listing prices and time on market reduces the racial gap to effectively zero. This suggests that black sellers face higher search frictions, which leads to worse selling outcomes.

In this study, we investigate the financial disparities faced by black sellers in the US housing market. Using repeat-sale transactions from 2003 to 2020, we document that black sellers earn, on average, 0.36% lower annualized unlevered returns on their property sales compared to non-black sellers, when selling comparable properties at the same time in the same neighborhood. We find that the racial disparities in housing returns are not explained by seller characteristics, property renovations, the race of the buyer, seller agent fixed effects, and appraisal measures. However, controlling for listing prices and time on market reduces the racial gap to effectively zero. This suggests that black sellers face higher search frictions, which leads to worse selling outcomes.

In this study, we investigate the financial disparities faced by black sellers in the US housing market. Using repeat-sale transactions from 2003 to 2020, we document that black sellers earn, on average, 0.36% lower annualized unlevered returns on their property sales compared to non-black sellers, when selling comparable properties at the same time in the same neighborhood. We find that the racial disparities in housing returns are not explained by seller characteristics, property renovations, the race of the buyer, seller agent fixed effects, and appraisal measures. However, controlling for listing prices and time on market reduces the racial gap to effectively zero. This suggests that black sellers face higher search frictions, which leads to worse selling outcomes.

Works in Progress

Works in Progress
Works in Progress

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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut et massa mi. Aliquam in hendrerit urna. Pellentesque sit amet sapien fringilla, mattis ligula consectetur, ultrices mauris. Maecenas vitae mattis tellus. Nullam quis imperdiet augue. Vestibulum auctor ornare leo, non suscipit magna interdum eu. Curabitur pellentesque nibh nibh, at maximus ante fermentum sit amet. Pellentesque commodo lacus at sodales sodales. Quisque sagittis orci ut diam condimentum, vel euismod erat placerat. In iaculis arcu eros, eget tempus orci facilisis id.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut et massa mi. Aliquam in hendrerit urna. Pellentesque sit amet sapien fringilla, mattis ligula consectetur, ultrices mauris. Maecenas vitae mattis tellus. Nullam quis imperdiet augue. Vestibulum auctor ornare leo, non suscipit magna interdum eu. Curabitur pellentesque nibh nibh, at maximus ante fermentum sit amet. Pellentesque commodo lacus at sodales sodales. Quisque sagittis orci ut diam condimentum, vel euismod erat placerat. In iaculis arcu eros, eget tempus orci facilisis id.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut et massa mi. Aliquam in hendrerit urna. Pellentesque sit amet sapien fringilla, mattis ligula consectetur, ultrices mauris. Maecenas vitae mattis tellus. Nullam quis imperdiet augue. Vestibulum auctor ornare leo, non suscipit magna interdum eu. Curabitur pellentesque nibh nibh, at maximus ante fermentum sit amet. Pellentesque commodo lacus at sodales sodales. Quisque sagittis orci ut diam condimentum, vel euismod erat placerat. In iaculis arcu eros, eget tempus orci facilisis id.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut et massa mi. Aliquam in hendrerit urna. Pellentesque sit amet sapien fringilla, mattis ligula consectetur, ultrices mauris. Maecenas vitae mattis tellus. Nullam quis imperdiet augue. Vestibulum auctor ornare leo, non suscipit magna interdum eu. Curabitur pellentesque nibh nibh, at maximus ante fermentum sit amet. Pellentesque commodo lacus at sodales sodales. Quisque sagittis orci ut diam condimentum, vel euismod erat placerat. In iaculis arcu eros, eget tempus orci facilisis id.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut et massa mi. Aliquam in hendrerit urna. Pellentesque sit amet sapien fringilla, mattis ligula consectetur, ultrices mauris. Maecenas vitae mattis tellus. Nullam quis imperdiet augue. Vestibulum auctor ornare leo, non suscipit magna interdum eu. Curabitur pellentesque nibh nibh, at maximus ante fermentum sit amet. Pellentesque commodo lacus at sodales sodales. Quisque sagittis orci ut diam condimentum, vel euismod erat placerat. In iaculis arcu eros, eget tempus orci facilisis id.

Policy Paper

Policy Paper
Policy Paper

This report analyzes how credit card borrowing patterns evolve during and after the annual peak in consumer spending in November and December each year.

This report analyzes how credit card borrowing patterns evolve during and after the annual peak in consumer spending in November and December each year.

This report analyzes how credit card borrowing patterns evolve during and after the annual peak in consumer spending in November and December each year.

Curriculum Vitae

Curriculum Vitae

Curriculum Vitae

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